Except if you are winning more than 80% of the time. Then it's significant

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Sep 30, 2022
2:11:54pm

Blueto Intervention Needed

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Blueto

Bio page: Blueto
Joined: Jun 19, 2005
Last login: May 16, 2024
Total posts: 31,944 (6 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

Updated Kalani era offense vs defense

Cougzilla

9/30/22 11:18am

Good stuff

Blueto

9/30/22 11:26am

I will discuss

Jwine21

9/30/22 11:26am

That was…. Enlightening.

Cougzilla

9/30/22 11:28am

Haha. Joking aside, your post was really good. Great Info

Jwine21

9/30/22 11:30am

I like this analysis, but it all hinges on the number 24.

All-American

9/30/22 11:28am

My rationale for 24 is the average offense in college football scores 27 points

Cougzilla

9/30/22 11:29am

I think it's a fair metric, to be clear.

All-American

9/30/22 11:40am

Now, take into account the average TOP that BYU O loses thanks to the Tuiaki

TrueBlue67

9/30/22 11:29am

In that metric I would have to somehow penalize the offense when have

Cougzilla

9/30/22 11:34am

Very true. Now, just come up with the metric! Please...

TrueBlue67

9/30/22 11:36am

While this is true, it's also true that an offense that isn't on the sidelines for prolonged times has an easier time

Mobettah

9/30/22 11:48am

24 is an arbitrary threshold. Defense can limit points simply by playing

royal_blue

9/30/22 11:33am

RE: 24 is an arbitrary threshold. Defense can limit points simply by playing

Cougzilla

9/30/22 11:35am

I might agree if it meant we were losing games. We are winning at a higher rate

Blueto

9/30/22 11:38am

Only at the point that we start losing are we allowed to recognize deficiencies?

royal_blue

9/30/22 11:50am

And offenses can inflate points by running Hurry-up-no-huddle.

cougarfan84

9/30/22 11:46am

Agreed

Cougzilla

9/30/22 11:51am

So you agree with me.

royal_blue

9/30/22 11:53am

You seem to be a big fan of the "Points per drive" stat.

Abe Froman

9/30/22 12:10pm

RE: You seem to be a big fan of the "Points per drive" stat.

royal_blue

9/30/22 12:12pm

Agree that 24 is arbitrary. Here's the most important statistic - wins

NYC and Japan

9/30/22 1:30pm

Step 1: check W/L column. If W > L then stop analysis. Seems...not brilliant.

royal_blue

9/30/22 1:50pm

Not brilliant is a pretty high standard around these parts.

All-American

9/30/22 2:03pm

Except if you are winning more than 80% of the time. Then it's significant

Blueto

9/30/22 2:11pm

When we drop to 79% then we can look deeper than W/L? I'll standby until then.

royal_blue

9/30/22 2:20pm

Please and thank you.

All-American

9/30/22 2:41pm

Unlike you, I did not infer the only statistic worth checking. I listed 2

NYC and Japan

9/30/22 4:54pm

I’m pretty sure you’re just talking past me but I’ll make an attempt to steer

royal_blue

9/30/22 8:29pm

It's only kind of arbitrary but I am going to relook at this doing ppd. 👀👀

Cougzilla

10/1/22 6:47pm

I should have said subjective not arbitrary. It isn’t strictly arbitrary.

royal_blue

10/1/22 11:16pm

You know what would be cool is if we built a dynamic visual where the point

royal_blue

10/1/22 11:22pm

That does sound cool. Would you know how to do that if I got you the info?

Cougzilla

10/2/22 7:34am

Yes.

royal_blue

10/2/22 7:48am

This is fascinating. Dead on in my opinion.

CougaRR4L

9/30/22 11:50am

Interesting analysis. While we could debate about whether or not "24 points" is

cougarfan84

9/30/22 11:59am

Interesting perspective. Admittedly it’s not a perfect system.

Cougzilla

9/30/22 2:13pm

Oregon as team loss? The d let their first string score every possession

BYU '80

9/30/22 2:29pm

Offense failed to score 24+ points, defense gave up 24+, team fail

BYUFootballisBack

9/30/22 2:33pm

So that pretty much eliminates your methodology as meaningful

BYU '80

9/30/22 2:37pm

Why?

Cougzilla

9/30/22 2:39pm

The minimum in this metric is the offense must score 24 point to pull their own

Cougzilla

9/30/22 2:38pm

Very hard for the offense to obtain their goals when the defense stays on the

chazen

10/1/22 1:48am

Did you watch the game? Maybe the offense should get 1st downs if they

Blueto

10/1/22 8:08am

I think both of you are right. However, continuity and flow to a football game matters. Standing on the sidelines for

Mobettah

10/1/22 10:55am

I don’t really like this argument because when you simplify it you essentially

Cougzilla

10/1/22 11:22am

LOL. Sure did

chazen

10/1/22 2:54pm

Why is it the defenses fault if the offense can’t get a single first down?

Cougzilla

10/1/22 11:27am

Offense scored 38 and had multiple missed field goals. Seems they are doing fine. Can they be better? Sure.

Mobettah

10/1/22 11:34am

I agree they are fine, that why I don’t like the argument.

Cougzilla

10/1/22 11:45am

Case in point: The second half our offense seemed to perform much better during the times the defense would get

Mobettah

10/1/22 12:57pm

I could just as easily flip that around. Our defense played better when our

Cougzilla

10/1/22 1:12pm

USU scored on their first possession for the first time this year. Our defense made a 1-4 crappy USU offense

Mobettah

10/1/22 1:29pm

USU held an offense to -20 rush for the first half for the first time this year

Cougzilla

10/1/22 1:43pm

I'll take our offense over this defensive scheme any day of the week. And you the defense. Fair enough.

Mobettah

10/1/22 2:24pm

LOL! Scoring 38 with 2 missed field goals made a crappy USU defense look good. Okay man. In your world TOP doesn't

Mobettah

10/1/22 2:28pm

They only scored 31. And how is missing field goals a good thing. It is also

Cougzilla

10/1/22 2:33pm

This thread shows you defending the defense. Just own it. You like the scheme. Any counter points are dismissed.

Mobettah

10/1/22 2:42pm

If the defense sucks it’s the defenses fault. If the offense sucks it’s also the

Cougzilla

10/1/22 2:48pm

LOL! Our offense sucks according to you. Got it.

Mobettah

10/1/22 2:49pm

I said “if”also this whole thread literally started by someone saying

Cougzilla

10/1/22 2:52pm

I did elaborate. TOP matters to the flow of the game for offense. That's a premise you categorically denied above.

Mobettah

10/1/22 2:55pm

Ok but why does that standard not go both way.

Cougzilla

10/1/22 2:59pm

This goes to scheme. This defense is not being called for quick 3 & outs. It's the bend but don't break approach.

Mobettah

10/1/22 3:13pm

Ok so the criticism is based more on the scheme than the results of the game?

Cougzilla

10/1/22 3:18pm

If the offense sucks it's the offenses fault. If the defense sucks it's also the offenses fault. Got it.

Mobettah

10/1/22 2:51pm

I never said that. Now you are straw manning big time.

Cougzilla

10/1/22 2:53pm

Just using your own technique against you.

Mobettah

10/1/22 2:55pm

But you are literally saying that the offense struggled because of the defense

Cougzilla

10/1/22 3:00pm

Amazing, I know! I'm literally saying if the defense can't get off the field there is a rhythm to the game that

Mobettah

10/1/22 3:03pm

And I am asking why that standard doesn’t go both ways?

Cougzilla

10/1/22 3:08pm

I would disagree with your last statements.

Mobettah

10/1/22 3:17pm

but literally means the entire outcome of the game relies on the defense, yes?

Cougzilla

10/1/22 3:19pm

I don't think you understand the word 'literally'

Mobettah

10/1/22 3:22pm

Yeah I understand that could affect the offense.

Cougzilla

10/1/22 3:28pm

Exactly!

Mobettah

10/1/22 3:33pm

So when I say that your position is

Cougzilla

10/1/22 3:37pm

Also, are you admitting that your position is

Cougzilla

10/1/22 3:15pm

Just because I used your technique against you of writing a reverse doesn't mean I admit to that. I've stated my

Mobettah

10/1/22 3:18pm

No I am legitimately confused.

Cougzilla

10/1/22 3:21pm

Real clear. I'll restate our positions.

Mobettah

10/1/22 3:28pm

Kind of.

Cougzilla

10/1/22 3:35pm

Assuming points scored per possession is a good KPI, TOP should matter in that it gives an offense/defense who is

Mobettah

10/1/22 3:47pm

I will tentatively agree to everything in this except the last line.

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