You know what would be cool is if we built a dynamic visual where the point

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Oct 1, 2022
11:22:15pm

royal_blue Playmaker

You know what would be cool is if we built a dynamic visual where the point

threshold is on a slider and the analysis updates based on the selected threshold. What you would expect is that if you started at 0, the defensive losses would be very high and offensive losses would be very low. As you increase the threshold they would gradually shift in opposite directions and at some point offensive losses would be higher than defensive. It would be interesting to know where that inflection point is.

If you send me the data I could build it.

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royal_blue

Bio page: royal_blue
Joined: Nov 27, 2006
Last login: Apr 29, 2024
Total posts: 2,571 (5 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

Updated Kalani era offense vs defense

Cougzilla

9/30/22 11:18am

Good stuff

Blueto

9/30/22 11:26am

I will discuss

Jwine21

9/30/22 11:26am

That was…. Enlightening.

Cougzilla

9/30/22 11:28am

Haha. Joking aside, your post was really good. Great Info

Jwine21

9/30/22 11:30am

I like this analysis, but it all hinges on the number 24.

9/30/22 11:28am

My rationale for 24 is the average offense in college football scores 27 points

Cougzilla

9/30/22 11:29am

I think it's a fair metric, to be clear.

9/30/22 11:40am

Now, take into account the average TOP that BYU O loses thanks to the Tuiaki

TrueBlue67

9/30/22 11:29am

In that metric I would have to somehow penalize the offense when have

Cougzilla

9/30/22 11:34am

Very true. Now, just come up with the metric! Please...

TrueBlue67

9/30/22 11:36am

While this is true, it's also true that an offense that isn't on the sidelines for prolonged times has an easier time

Mobettah

9/30/22 11:48am

24 is an arbitrary threshold. Defense can limit points simply by playing

royal_blue

9/30/22 11:33am

RE: 24 is an arbitrary threshold. Defense can limit points simply by playing

Cougzilla

9/30/22 11:35am

I might agree if it meant we were losing games. We are winning at a higher rate

Blueto

9/30/22 11:38am

Only at the point that we start losing are we allowed to recognize deficiencies?

royal_blue

9/30/22 11:50am

And offenses can inflate points by running Hurry-up-no-huddle.

cougarfan84

9/30/22 11:46am

Agreed

Cougzilla

9/30/22 11:51am

So you agree with me.

royal_blue

9/30/22 11:53am

You seem to be a big fan of the "Points per drive" stat.

Abe Froman

9/30/22 12:10pm

RE: You seem to be a big fan of the "Points per drive" stat.

royal_blue

9/30/22 12:12pm

Agree that 24 is arbitrary. Here's the most important statistic - wins

NYC and Japan

9/30/22 1:30pm

Step 1: check W/L column. If W > L then stop analysis. Seems...not brilliant.

royal_blue

9/30/22 1:50pm

Not brilliant is a pretty high standard around these parts.

9/30/22 2:03pm

Except if you are winning more than 80% of the time. Then it's significant

Blueto

9/30/22 2:11pm

When we drop to 79% then we can look deeper than W/L? I'll standby until then.

royal_blue

9/30/22 2:20pm

Please and thank you.

9/30/22 2:41pm

Unlike you, I did not infer the only statistic worth checking. I listed 2

NYC and Japan

9/30/22 4:54pm

I’m pretty sure you’re just talking past me but I’ll make an attempt to steer

royal_blue

9/30/22 8:29pm

It's only kind of arbitrary but I am going to relook at this doing ppd. 👀👀

Cougzilla

10/1/22 6:47pm

I should have said subjective not arbitrary. It isn’t strictly arbitrary.

royal_blue

10/1/22 11:16pm

You know what would be cool is if we built a dynamic visual where the point

royal_blue

10/1/22 11:22pm

That does sound cool. Would you know how to do that if I got you the info?

Cougzilla

10/2/22 7:34am

Yes.

royal_blue

10/2/22 7:48am

This is fascinating. Dead on in my opinion.

CougaRR4L

9/30/22 11:50am

Interesting analysis. While we could debate about whether or not "24 points" is

cougarfan84

9/30/22 11:59am

Interesting perspective. Admittedly it’s not a perfect system.

Cougzilla

9/30/22 2:13pm

Oregon as team loss? The d let their first string score every possession

BYU '80

9/30/22 2:29pm

Offense failed to score 24+ points, defense gave up 24+, team fail

BYUFootballisBack

9/30/22 2:33pm

So that pretty much eliminates your methodology as meaningful

BYU '80

9/30/22 2:37pm

Why?

Cougzilla

9/30/22 2:39pm

The minimum in this metric is the offense must score 24 point to pull their own

Cougzilla

9/30/22 2:38pm

Very hard for the offense to obtain their goals when the defense stays on the

chazen

10/1/22 1:48am

Did you watch the game? Maybe the offense should get 1st downs if they

Blueto

10/1/22 8:08am

I think both of you are right. However, continuity and flow to a football game matters. Standing on the sidelines for

Mobettah

10/1/22 10:55am

I don’t really like this argument because when you simplify it you essentially

Cougzilla

10/1/22 11:22am

LOL. Sure did

chazen

10/1/22 2:54pm

Why is it the defenses fault if the offense can’t get a single first down?

Cougzilla

10/1/22 11:27am

Offense scored 38 and had multiple missed field goals. Seems they are doing fine. Can they be better? Sure.

Mobettah

10/1/22 11:34am

I agree they are fine, that why I don’t like the argument.

Cougzilla

10/1/22 11:45am

Case in point: The second half our offense seemed to perform much better during the times the defense would get

Mobettah

10/1/22 12:57pm

I could just as easily flip that around. Our defense played better when our

Cougzilla

10/1/22 1:12pm

USU scored on their first possession for the first time this year. Our defense made a 1-4 crappy USU offense

Mobettah

10/1/22 1:29pm

USU held an offense to -20 rush for the first half for the first time this year

Cougzilla

10/1/22 1:43pm

I'll take our offense over this defensive scheme any day of the week. And you the defense. Fair enough.

Mobettah

10/1/22 2:24pm

LOL! Scoring 38 with 2 missed field goals made a crappy USU defense look good. Okay man. In your world TOP doesn't

Mobettah

10/1/22 2:28pm

They only scored 31. And how is missing field goals a good thing. It is also

Cougzilla

10/1/22 2:33pm

This thread shows you defending the defense. Just own it. You like the scheme. Any counter points are dismissed.

Mobettah

10/1/22 2:42pm

If the defense sucks it’s the defenses fault. If the offense sucks it’s also the

Cougzilla

10/1/22 2:48pm

LOL! Our offense sucks according to you. Got it.

Mobettah

10/1/22 2:49pm

I said “if”also this whole thread literally started by someone saying

Cougzilla

10/1/22 2:52pm

I did elaborate. TOP matters to the flow of the game for offense. That's a premise you categorically denied above.

Mobettah

10/1/22 2:55pm

Ok but why does that standard not go both way.

Cougzilla

10/1/22 2:59pm

This goes to scheme. This defense is not being called for quick 3 & outs. It's the bend but don't break approach.

Mobettah

10/1/22 3:13pm

Ok so the criticism is based more on the scheme than the results of the game?

Cougzilla

10/1/22 3:18pm

If the offense sucks it's the offenses fault. If the defense sucks it's also the offenses fault. Got it.

Mobettah

10/1/22 2:51pm

I never said that. Now you are straw manning big time.

Cougzilla

10/1/22 2:53pm

Just using your own technique against you.

Mobettah

10/1/22 2:55pm

But you are literally saying that the offense struggled because of the defense

Cougzilla

10/1/22 3:00pm

Amazing, I know! I'm literally saying if the defense can't get off the field there is a rhythm to the game that

Mobettah

10/1/22 3:03pm

And I am asking why that standard doesn’t go both ways?

Cougzilla

10/1/22 3:08pm

I would disagree with your last statements.

Mobettah

10/1/22 3:17pm

but literally means the entire outcome of the game relies on the defense, yes?

Cougzilla

10/1/22 3:19pm

I don't think you understand the word 'literally'

Mobettah

10/1/22 3:22pm

Yeah I understand that could affect the offense.

Cougzilla

10/1/22 3:28pm

Exactly!

Mobettah

10/1/22 3:33pm

So when I say that your position is

Cougzilla

10/1/22 3:37pm

Also, are you admitting that your position is

Cougzilla

10/1/22 3:15pm

Just because I used your technique against you of writing a reverse doesn't mean I admit to that. I've stated my

Mobettah

10/1/22 3:18pm

No I am legitimately confused.

Cougzilla

10/1/22 3:21pm

Real clear. I'll restate our positions.

Mobettah

10/1/22 3:28pm

Kind of.

Cougzilla

10/1/22 3:35pm

Assuming points scored per possession is a good KPI, TOP should matter in that it gives an offense/defense who is

Mobettah

10/1/22 3:47pm

I will tentatively agree to everything in this except the last line.

Cougzilla

10/1/22 4:03pm

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