1) TV ratings - a common mistake is to look at Utah's TV ratings for matchups involving high profile teams like USC and Oregon. Take a look at how they draw when they play a low end PAC school like Oregon State. This is the true test of viewership, when it is on YOUR program's shoulders to bring viewers. Utah does very poorly here.

2) Utah has been better at football than any of the 4-Corner Schools for over 20 years - poll rankings aren't totally insignificant in expansion, but they don't mean very much. Expansion is about your media value to the conference evaluating you, winning is not necessarily required if you bring eyeballs.

3) Utah is AAU school. One of only 65. It is a fact - Being an AAU school is nice, but it only matters to the Big10. That is not a requirement for the Big12 or any other major conference really.

4) Utah has better attendance, fan engagement, than any of the 4-corner teams - this is possibly true and is a meaningful thing for expansion. However, if you look at the potential for fans/fan engagement of CU, UofA, ASU, it is greater for them than Utah. Larger enrollments, more alumni, bigger media markets, larger state populations. If those schools have a significant money advantage by being in the Big12 (vs. the PWAC/MWC), their engagement is likely to grow bigger/faster. Credit to Ute fans, they've engaged pretty well for the numbers they have.

5) Utah is an excellent geographic fit for the Big12 - Utah's geography is probably the biggest reason why they might NOT get invited to the Big12. The Big12 already has that geography factored into the value of their TV contract, with BYU. Adding Utah doesn't give you anything accretive, and is in fact dilutive.

Utah's Big12 candidacy is anything but a sure thing. If you're a Ute, you need to hope that the ACC stays lock step together and is showing no signs of breaking up, and you need to hope the Big12 doesn't decide UConn with their basketball and Eastern exposure is a better 4th addition, considering the above.