your data makes me ask the following question:

Dec 14, 2020
2:23:07pm

run26 Truly Addicted User

would an above average G5 team have a reasonable chance of going 10-1 against BYU's schedule this year? I believe the answer is YES. And that is why I questioned the top 10 ranking BYU enjoyed and I'm even skeptical of top 20. Your analysis confirms my suspicion when you say "BYU is probably comparable over the last decade to some of the better teams in the AAC" and "BYU is, over the last decade, relatively comparable to a bad P5 team".

This message has been modified

Originally posted on Dec 14, 2020 at 2:23:07pm

Message modified by run26 on Dec 14, 2020 at 2:23:48pm

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run26

Previous username: whoppercougar
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Joined: Aug 23, 2007
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Messages

Author

Time

BYU vs P5 over the last 10 years

krindorr

12/14/20 2:19pm

I’d redo this analysis but take out all the losses to Utah.

zsmooth

12/14/20 2:20pm

Yeah take out some of the data so BYU looks better.

Ham

12/14/20 2:22pm

Rivalry games are a different beast. You could control for P5 rivalries, too.

I'm Dynamite

12/14/20 2:27pm

The idea of a rivalry game is that it's anybody's game, regardless of record...

krindorr

12/14/20 2:38pm

It's also that the causal factors at play are a different kind than the other

I'm Dynamite

12/14/20 2:39pm

Potentially, but that's a lot more work and introduces more uncertainty

krindorr

12/14/20 6:21pm

Rivals aren't a matter of conference designation. You should know better.

CougarThug

12/14/20 8:46pm

Take out the close losses too. And add half a dozen moral victories. That’ll give you a better idea

TEXAS

12/14/20 2:24pm

That’s the spirit!

zsmooth

12/14/20 4:24pm

I'd take out the losses to Utah if BYU would stop losing to Utah

krindorr

12/14/20 2:25pm

Well that sounds harder.

zsmooth

12/14/20 4:24pm

You're a yewt. Lets not believe you were objective in this.

Brandoblueblood

12/14/20 5:21pm

Haven't hid anything - want BYU to do well

krindorr

12/14/20 5:37pm

You can say that but when you post things that really belong on utefans.net...

Brandoblueblood

12/14/20 6:52pm

Didn't think BYU resume was top 10 after 3 games - I stand by that

krindorr

12/14/20 7:15pm

Take out the other losses too. Then we'll be undefeated.

All-American

12/14/20 2:29pm

He's a yewt troll. He selected the most unfavorable data. Proof of yewtness:

Brandoblueblood

12/14/20 5:13pm

Thanks for this research. I have tagged him so I know in the future everything he says is garbage.

zsmooth

12/14/20 5:21pm

I'd suggest reading the post he's spamming

krindorr

12/14/20 5:49pm

Yeah I was trying to be sarcastic.

zsmooth

12/14/20 5:54pm

I actually tagged you “BYU fan with questionable Ute sympathies”

zsmooth

12/14/20 6:26pm

That's probably accurate

krindorr

12/14/20 6:45pm

No, that's hyperbole if not 100% untrue.

Brandoblueblood

12/14/20 6:56pm

Brando, we've been over this

krindorr

12/14/20 7:10pm

If if if... Here are the numbers that matter! 0 CFP, 0 NY6 Bowls, 0 Top 20

delete_king

12/14/20 8:09pm

Not MWC, but need to find a way to go AAC

krindorr

12/14/20 8:23pm

I want to see how BYU's P5 record stacks up against other P5s.

LegitCoug

12/14/20 2:22pm

Weighted for home vs away

BlueBlitzkrieg

12/14/20 2:26pm

This is a really good point; wish I'd thought of it

krindorr

12/14/20 5:52pm

^^^THIS!!! I’ve been saying it for years. 2 for 1s. and guess what??? All the

MustacheMan

12/14/20 9:14pm

Additional Stats on Home v Away

krindorr

12/15/20 11:08am

I'd appreciate an analysis that takes Utah as 1 data point rather than

I'm Dynamite

12/15/20 11:19am

Taking all repeated matchups as 1 data point

krindorr

12/15/20 11:50am

Thanks for this work krindorr! Very good of you.

I'm Dynamite

12/15/20 11:55am

Caveat on this data

krindorr

12/15/20 12:08pm

The data sets have their problems. This one is far better for the desired concl.

I'm Dynamite

12/15/20 12:59pm

Ultimately I don't think the data set tells that big a difference

krindorr

12/15/20 1:36pm

I think 500 without P5 resources is pretty exceptional!

I'm Dynamite

12/15/20 6:33pm

Definitely on the adjustment period

krindorr

12/16/20 7:41am

Or put Utah in its own category...so we see good P5's, "bad" P5's, and Utah

moknowssports

12/15/20 2:33pm

The Good, the Bad, and the Utah

krindorr

12/15/20 2:41pm

P5s are, on average, roughly .500 against other P5s.

All-American

12/14/20 2:29pm

But how are P5 against other good P5's versus bad P5's?

Doogal McCougar

12/14/20 2:42pm

Overall BYU has won 38%. The Average P5 team wins 50%

krindorr

12/14/20 3:00pm

I guess I was analyzing non-Utah rivalry games, where we compare to the average

Doogal McCougar

12/14/20 3:07pm

It also fails to get a nice randomized sample. Utah has been a bad matchup.

I'm Dynamite

12/14/20 3:10pm

Of course the average P5 teams win 50%. That's completely meaningless.

CougarThug

12/14/20 8:49pm

Utah is 50-45 against P5 teams over that span

krindorr

12/14/20 2:30pm

Without the P5 support and the recruiting, we're doing quite well.

I'm Dynamite

12/14/20 2:32pm

I think BYU could, after a decade of increased P5 resources, have a similar

ZacSeljaas'Stache

12/14/20 2:33pm

Agreed - Utah had a similar adjustment period

krindorr

12/14/20 2:35pm

Yep, 2 5-7 seasons to start their P5 era. I think we'd have a similar start

ZacSeljaas'Stache

12/14/20 2:36pm

I love how you're still pretending to be a BYU fan...

SaintGeorgeYFan

12/14/20 7:45pm

In fact, I think we have the fundamentals to build a better program.

I'm Dynamite

12/14/20 2:37pm

BYU and Utah have been pretty similar; I'd expect them to be similar at P5 level

krindorr

12/14/20 2:51pm

Our floor is higher because we consistently get good latter-day saint athletes

D.T. Survivor

12/14/20 4:38pm

Agreed, I'd love to see it at the P5 level

krindorr

12/14/20 5:55pm

Dude took the most unfavorable stretch to get data from because he's a yewt trol

Brandoblueblood

12/14/20 5:16pm

I'm sorry to have upset you Brando

krindorr

12/14/20 5:40pm

So Utah is Mediocre, even with built in home P5 games, P5 money and P5 label.

SaintGeorgeYFan

12/14/20 7:43pm

RE: So Utah is Mediocre, even with built in home P5 games, P5 money and P5

krindorr

12/14/20 7:47pm

Utah has a higher % of "bad teams" in that span...P12 South not good last decade

moknowssports

12/15/20 2:06pm

Ya, I don’t think that’s true. The P12 South has

kos

12/15/20 5:03pm

your data makes me ask the following question:

run26

12/14/20 2:23pm

Take away Utah and it is 16 of 33. Pretty good for a school that doesn't get P5 recruiting advantages.

Turnpike Lane

12/14/20 2:23pm

That's a great point. Shoot, maybe the AP, Coach's Poll, and CFP Committee

kos

12/14/20 2:45pm

I was just using it as a measuring stick, but ok. Thanks!

Turnpike Lane

12/14/20 2:51pm

I know, I jumped the gun a little. My apologies. And you are right

kos

12/14/20 2:57pm

It's a statistical outlier. Settle down.

mulletino

12/14/20 3:14pm

One nit pick item -I wouldn't consider UW a lesser loss in 2019.

Gibbcoug

12/14/20 2:26pm

Fair, just can't account for everything

krindorr

12/14/20 2:32pm

thx for doing analysis. great info

Gibbcoug

12/14/20 2:36pm

Interesting to note that against the Pac-12, who a lot of folks here seem to

kos

12/14/20 2:48pm

BYU fans aren't the only ones that think the PAC12 is a joke

BlueBlitzkrieg

12/14/20 3:05pm

but we may be the only fans dying to get into the Pac12

run26

12/14/20 3:07pm

I'm not saying that. Of course I want in any P5, but I don't like the attitude

BlueBlitzkrieg

12/14/20 3:15pm

Look, I actually agree that BYU deserves to be in a P5. Just providing a little

kos

12/14/20 3:26pm

Couple of things.

kos

12/14/20 3:09pm

5-6 (no 2014 game), but agree in principle

krindorr

12/14/20 3:11pm

This makes sense and seems pretty reasonable to me. And to be fair, I agree

kos

12/14/20 3:17pm

Agreed. The HC will keep us from ever competing at the top level.

BlueBlitzkrieg

12/14/20 3:33pm

Fiances my friend, finances. Debt free, national fan base who watch and travel.

I'm Dynamite

12/14/20 3:17pm

There is a joke in there about fiances and BYU recruiting, but I'm afraid of

kos

12/14/20 3:23pm

I don't think BYU would be my top choice, but they're certainly top 5

krindorr

12/14/20 3:24pm

Your criteria here remain mysterious.

I'm Dynamite

12/14/20 3:27pm

Population, student size, on-field success, academic reputation, travel

krindorr

12/14/20 3:33pm

The financial case is strongly in BYU's favor. The rest also favor us on balance

I'm Dynamite

12/14/20 3:48pm

What makes you so sure on finances?

krindorr

12/14/20 3:54pm

I am confident that the finances heavily favor BYU.

I'm Dynamite

12/14/20 3:57pm

You keep saying that, but I'm just wanting some sort of data

krindorr

12/14/20 4:46pm

See my last post for basic evidence. Your claims also seem to lack evidence

I'm Dynamite

12/14/20 4:53pm

See links with evidence

krindorr

12/14/20 5:13pm

And Fandom involves actually liking your team.

Brandoblueblood

12/14/20 5:18pm

Not sure why you feel the need to keep posting this....

krindorr

12/14/20 6:06pm

Not sure why you still try to act like you're a BYU fan

Brandoblueblood

12/14/20 6:48pm

You have a strange conception of evidence. Consider the courtroom notion.

I'm Dynamite

12/14/20 5:22pm

The ESPN deal isn’t some crazy cash deal.

DrJazzy

12/14/20 5:14pm

This is one reason I'd love to see BYU football in the AAC

krindorr

12/16/20 8:29am

Not mysterious. He's a yewt troll

Brandoblueblood

12/14/20 5:11pm

Did you actually read the post you're linking? where I say BYU > Utah

krindorr

12/14/20 5:44pm

You didn't actually say that. And you said you chuckle at BYU fans

Brandoblueblood

12/14/20 6:57pm

Please check the date before rambling

krindorr

12/14/20 7:05pm

Oh you said that more than once.

Brandoblueblood

12/14/20 7:16pm

71% vs Big 12 -including winning records against Texas and Oklahoma

Happy As Larry

12/14/20 3:54pm

Yeah, I just looked at last decade (since Indy) but Okla win was big

krindorr

12/14/20 3:58pm

And also because you're a Yewt you selectively chose what data to include

Brandoblueblood

12/14/20 5:10pm

Also take out all losses if we’re were wearing all whites.

SFarkus

12/14/20 4:25pm

Agreed. Any losses in the bibs are suspect too.

zsmooth

12/14/20 4:32pm

How about drop to FCS and win an NC? For me it is Power or Indy. Never again G5

ImuaKahuku

12/14/20 4:44pm

Good work. Data takes (or should) the emotion out of the analysis. I prefer

Forzaitalia

12/14/20 4:52pm

Wasn't our record against P5s before independence similar?

D.T. Survivor

12/14/20 5:01pm

The decade before that BYU won 38.4% (10/26)

krindorr

12/15/20 2:54pm

Not good work. He's a Yewt who put Yewt Spin on it

Brandoblueblood

12/14/20 5:05pm

Data not emotion.

Forzaitalia

12/14/20 5:46pm

Data: 100% of his posts are positive on yewtah and negative on BYU.

Brandoblueblood

12/14/20 6:42pm

13 of your 57 posts at this point are attacking me...

krindorr

12/14/20 6:53pm

I never pretended to like yewt fans. Or worse, to be one *shudder.*

Brandoblueblood

12/14/20 7:20pm

To be fair Krindor, objective analysis of P5 schedules wouldn't look like yours

I'm Dynamite

12/14/20 7:22pm

Why throw out the Utah results? Does Auburn get to ignore annual losses to

Forzaitalia

12/14/20 7:34pm

I missed on home/away; think leaving Utah in is more objective than ignoring

krindorr

12/14/20 7:40pm

If you are trying to make a conclusions about P5 competition

I'm Dynamite

12/14/20 8:13pm

Also, those alleged posts are misquoted by you or aren't in fact positive

Brandoblueblood

12/14/20 7:23pm

TROLL ALERT: Originator is a dirty Yewt.

Brandoblueblood

12/14/20 5:02pm

I'm up front about fandom of both BYU and Utah; doesn't change data

krindorr

12/14/20 5:18pm

it's common on here to attack folks personally when you say something

run26

12/14/20 5:32pm

A possibility

I'm Dynamite

12/14/20 5:46pm

Frankly, I don't think you're a homer

krindorr

12/14/20 6:16pm

Nope. You're upfront about being a yewt. Your posts on BYU are all negative.

Brandoblueblood

12/14/20 6:19pm

Except for all those positive posts about BYU

krindorr

12/14/20 6:34pm

Interesting, I don't see any. The only positive posts from you are about yewtah

Brandoblueblood

12/14/20 6:41pm

Krindorr: "I chuckle at all these BYU fans who think they're a top 10 team."

Brandoblueblood

12/14/20 6:50pm

Because I expected the committee to rank BYU #12 - EDITED

krindorr

12/14/20 6:58pm

Ha. On October 7? Gig's up yewt.

Brandoblueblood

12/14/20 7:17pm

Yes - On October 7th, I didn't think BYU was a top 10 team. And?

krindorr

12/14/20 7:23pm

Here's a fact yewtah's sucking worse: mustered 2 wins this year

Brandoblueblood

12/14/20 6:25pm

Seems like a good position...add P5 money and prestige...BYU emerges upper tier

Jasbo

12/14/20 7:21pm

Agree, I think there's a rough transition, but they'd be as good as Utah

krindorr

12/14/20 7:26pm

I have different takes on this data...

Hill4Heisman

12/15/20 12:40pm

Lots of that has been addressed

krindorr

12/15/20 1:12pm

Just for fun, I did an analysis for Florida

Hill4Heisman

12/15/20 2:12pm

Thanks for this - that's a ton of effort

krindorr

12/15/20 2:28pm

Add in 6 cancelled P5s this season. That would help.

I'm Dynamite

12/15/20 1:17pm

Having now collected data for all 69 P5S teams (including BYU, UCF, Cincy, Houston)...

krindorr

9/8/21 6:59pm

How other G5 teams compare

krindorr

12/15/20 2:22pm

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