It's a statistical outlier. Settle down.

I’d redo this analysis but take out all the losses to Utah.

zsmooth

12/14/20 2:20pm

Yeah take out some of the data so BYU looks better.

Ham

12/14/20 2:22pm

Rivalry games are a different beast. You could control for P5 rivalries, too.

I'm Dynamite

12/14/20 2:27pm

The idea of a rivalry game is that it's anybody's game, regardless of record...

krindorr

12/14/20 2:38pm

It's also that the causal factors at play are a different kind than the other

I'm Dynamite

12/14/20 2:39pm

Potentially, but that's a lot more work and introduces more uncertainty

krindorr

12/14/20 6:21pm

Rivals aren't a matter of conference designation. You should know better.

CougarThug

12/14/20 8:46pm

Take out the close losses too. And add half a dozen moral victories. That’ll give you a better idea

TEXAS

12/14/20 2:24pm

That’s the spirit!

zsmooth

12/14/20 4:24pm

I'd take out the losses to Utah if BYU would stop losing to Utah

krindorr

12/14/20 2:25pm

Well that sounds harder.

zsmooth

12/14/20 4:24pm

You're a yewt. Lets not believe you were objective in this.

Brandoblueblood

12/14/20 5:21pm

Haven't hid anything - want BYU to do well

krindorr

12/14/20 5:37pm

You can say that but when you post things that really belong on utefans.net...

Brandoblueblood

12/14/20 6:52pm

Didn't think BYU resume was top 10 after 3 games - I stand by that

krindorr

12/14/20 7:15pm

Take out the other losses too. Then we'll be undefeated.

All-American

12/14/20 2:29pm

He's a yewt troll. He selected the most unfavorable data. Proof of yewtness:

Brandoblueblood

12/14/20 5:13pm

Thanks for this research. I have tagged him so I know in the future everything he says is garbage.

zsmooth

12/14/20 5:21pm

I'd suggest reading the post he's spamming

krindorr

12/14/20 5:49pm

Yeah I was trying to be sarcastic.

zsmooth

12/14/20 5:54pm

I actually tagged you “BYU fan with questionable Ute sympathies”

zsmooth

12/14/20 6:26pm

That's probably accurate

krindorr

12/14/20 6:45pm

No, that's hyperbole if not 100% untrue.

Brandoblueblood

12/14/20 6:56pm

Brando, we've been over this

krindorr

12/14/20 7:10pm

If if if... Here are the numbers that matter! 0 CFP, 0 NY6 Bowls, 0 Top 20

delete_king

12/14/20 8:09pm

Not MWC, but need to find a way to go AAC

krindorr

12/14/20 8:23pm

I want to see how BYU's P5 record stacks up against other P5s.

LegitCoug

12/14/20 2:22pm

Weighted for home vs away

BlueBlitzkrieg

12/14/20 2:26pm

This is a really good point; wish I'd thought of it

krindorr

12/14/20 5:52pm

^^^THIS!!! I’ve been saying it for years. 2 for 1s. and guess what??? All the

MustacheMan

12/14/20 9:14pm

Additional Stats on Home v Away

krindorr

12/15/20 11:08am

I'd appreciate an analysis that takes Utah as 1 data point rather than

I'm Dynamite

12/15/20 11:19am

Taking all repeated matchups as 1 data point

krindorr

12/15/20 11:50am

Thanks for this work krindorr! Very good of you.

I'm Dynamite

12/15/20 11:55am

Caveat on this data

krindorr

12/15/20 12:08pm

The data sets have their problems. This one is far better for the desired concl.

I'm Dynamite

12/15/20 12:59pm

Ultimately I don't think the data set tells that big a difference

krindorr

12/15/20 1:36pm

I think 500 without P5 resources is pretty exceptional!

I'm Dynamite

12/15/20 6:33pm

Definitely on the adjustment period

krindorr

12/16/20 7:41am

Or put Utah in its own category...so we see good P5's, "bad" P5's, and Utah

moknowssports

12/15/20 2:33pm

The Good, the Bad, and the Utah

krindorr

12/15/20 2:41pm

P5s are, on average, roughly .500 against other P5s.

All-American

12/14/20 2:29pm

But how are P5 against other good P5's versus bad P5's?

Doogal McCougar

12/14/20 2:42pm

Overall BYU has won 38%. The Average P5 team wins 50%

krindorr

12/14/20 3:00pm

I guess I was analyzing non-Utah rivalry games, where we compare to the average

Doogal McCougar

12/14/20 3:07pm

It also fails to get a nice randomized sample. Utah has been a bad matchup.

I'm Dynamite

12/14/20 3:10pm

Of course the average P5 teams win 50%. That's completely meaningless.

CougarThug

12/14/20 8:49pm

Utah is 50-45 against P5 teams over that span

krindorr

12/14/20 2:30pm

Without the P5 support and the recruiting, we're doing quite well.

I'm Dynamite

12/14/20 2:32pm

I think BYU could, after a decade of increased P5 resources, have a similar

ZacSeljaas'Stache

12/14/20 2:33pm

Agreed - Utah had a similar adjustment period

krindorr

12/14/20 2:35pm

Yep, 2 5-7 seasons to start their P5 era. I think we'd have a similar start

ZacSeljaas'Stache

12/14/20 2:36pm

I love how you're still pretending to be a BYU fan...

SaintGeorgeYFan

12/14/20 7:45pm

In fact, I think we have the fundamentals to build a better program.

I'm Dynamite

12/14/20 2:37pm

BYU and Utah have been pretty similar; I'd expect them to be similar at P5 level

krindorr

12/14/20 2:51pm

Our floor is higher because we consistently get good latter-day saint athletes

D.T. Survivor

12/14/20 4:38pm

Agreed, I'd love to see it at the P5 level

krindorr

12/14/20 5:55pm

Dude took the most unfavorable stretch to get data from because he's a yewt trol

Brandoblueblood

12/14/20 5:16pm

I'm sorry to have upset you Brando

krindorr

12/14/20 5:40pm

So Utah is Mediocre, even with built in home P5 games, P5 money and P5 label.

SaintGeorgeYFan

12/14/20 7:43pm

RE: So Utah is Mediocre, even with built in home P5 games, P5 money and P5

krindorr

12/14/20 7:47pm

Utah has a higher % of "bad teams" in that span...P12 South not good last decade

moknowssports

12/15/20 2:06pm

Ya, I don’t think that’s true. The P12 South has

kos

12/15/20 5:03pm

your data makes me ask the following question:

run26

12/14/20 2:23pm

Take away Utah and it is 16 of 33. Pretty good for a school that doesn't get P5 recruiting advantages.

Turnpike Lane

12/14/20 2:23pm

That's a great point. Shoot, maybe the AP, Coach's Poll, and CFP Committee

kos

12/14/20 2:45pm

I was just using it as a measuring stick, but ok. Thanks!

Turnpike Lane

12/14/20 2:51pm

I know, I jumped the gun a little. My apologies. And you are right

kos

12/14/20 2:57pm

It's a statistical outlier. Settle down.

mulletino

12/14/20 3:14pm

One nit pick item -I wouldn't consider UW a lesser loss in 2019.

Gibbcoug

12/14/20 2:26pm

Fair, just can't account for everything

krindorr

12/14/20 2:32pm

thx for doing analysis. great info

Gibbcoug

12/14/20 2:36pm

Interesting to note that against the Pac-12, who a lot of folks here seem to

kos

12/14/20 2:48pm

BYU fans aren't the only ones that think the PAC12 is a joke

BlueBlitzkrieg

12/14/20 3:05pm

but we may be the only fans dying to get into the Pac12

run26

12/14/20 3:07pm

I'm not saying that. Of course I want in any P5, but I don't like the attitude

BlueBlitzkrieg

12/14/20 3:15pm

Look, I actually agree that BYU deserves to be in a P5. Just providing a little

kos

12/14/20 3:26pm

Couple of things.

kos

12/14/20 3:09pm

5-6 (no 2014 game), but agree in principle

krindorr

12/14/20 3:11pm

This makes sense and seems pretty reasonable to me. And to be fair, I agree

kos

12/14/20 3:17pm

Agreed. The HC will keep us from ever competing at the top level.

BlueBlitzkrieg

12/14/20 3:33pm

Fiances my friend, finances. Debt free, national fan base who watch and travel.

I'm Dynamite

12/14/20 3:17pm

There is a joke in there about fiances and BYU recruiting, but I'm afraid of

kos

12/14/20 3:23pm

I don't think BYU would be my top choice, but they're certainly top 5

krindorr

12/14/20 3:24pm

Your criteria here remain mysterious.

I'm Dynamite

12/14/20 3:27pm

Population, student size, on-field success, academic reputation, travel

krindorr

12/14/20 3:33pm

The financial case is strongly in BYU's favor. The rest also favor us on balance

I'm Dynamite

12/14/20 3:48pm

What makes you so sure on finances?

krindorr

12/14/20 3:54pm

I am confident that the finances heavily favor BYU.

I'm Dynamite

12/14/20 3:57pm

You keep saying that, but I'm just wanting some sort of data

krindorr

12/14/20 4:46pm

See my last post for basic evidence. Your claims also seem to lack evidence

I'm Dynamite

12/14/20 4:53pm

See links with evidence

krindorr

12/14/20 5:13pm

And Fandom involves actually liking your team.

Brandoblueblood

12/14/20 5:18pm

Not sure why you feel the need to keep posting this....

krindorr

12/14/20 6:06pm

Not sure why you still try to act like you're a BYU fan

Brandoblueblood

12/14/20 6:48pm

You have a strange conception of evidence. Consider the courtroom notion.

I'm Dynamite

12/14/20 5:22pm

The ESPN deal isn’t some crazy cash deal.

DrJazzy

12/14/20 5:14pm

This is one reason I'd love to see BYU football in the AAC

krindorr

12/16/20 8:29am

Not mysterious. He's a yewt troll

Brandoblueblood

12/14/20 5:11pm

Did you actually read the post you're linking? where I say BYU > Utah

krindorr

12/14/20 5:44pm

You didn't actually say that. And you said you chuckle at BYU fans

Brandoblueblood

12/14/20 6:57pm

Please check the date before rambling

krindorr

12/14/20 7:05pm

Oh you said that more than once.

Brandoblueblood

12/14/20 7:16pm

71% vs Big 12 -including winning records against Texas and Oklahoma

Happy As Larry

12/14/20 3:54pm

Yeah, I just looked at last decade (since Indy) but Okla win was big

krindorr

12/14/20 3:58pm

And also because you're a Yewt you selectively chose what data to include

Brandoblueblood

12/14/20 5:10pm

Also take out all losses if we’re were wearing all whites.

SFarkus

12/14/20 4:25pm

Agreed. Any losses in the bibs are suspect too.

zsmooth

12/14/20 4:32pm

How about drop to FCS and win an NC? For me it is Power or Indy. Never again G5

ImuaKahuku

12/14/20 4:44pm

Good work. Data takes (or should) the emotion out of the analysis. I prefer

Forzaitalia

12/14/20 4:52pm

Wasn't our record against P5s before independence similar?

D.T. Survivor

12/14/20 5:01pm

The decade before that BYU won 38.4% (10/26)

krindorr

12/15/20 2:54pm

Not good work. He's a Yewt who put Yewt Spin on it

Brandoblueblood

12/14/20 5:05pm

Data not emotion.

Forzaitalia

12/14/20 5:46pm

Data: 100% of his posts are positive on yewtah and negative on BYU.

Brandoblueblood

12/14/20 6:42pm

13 of your 57 posts at this point are attacking me...

krindorr

12/14/20 6:53pm

I never pretended to like yewt fans. Or worse, to be one *shudder.*

Brandoblueblood

12/14/20 7:20pm

To be fair Krindor, objective analysis of P5 schedules wouldn't look like yours

I'm Dynamite

12/14/20 7:22pm

Why throw out the Utah results? Does Auburn get to ignore annual losses to

Forzaitalia

12/14/20 7:34pm

I missed on home/away; think leaving Utah in is more objective than ignoring

krindorr

12/14/20 7:40pm

If you are trying to make a conclusions about P5 competition

I'm Dynamite

12/14/20 8:13pm

Also, those alleged posts are misquoted by you or aren't in fact positive

Brandoblueblood

12/14/20 7:23pm

TROLL ALERT: Originator is a dirty Yewt.

Brandoblueblood

12/14/20 5:02pm

I'm up front about fandom of both BYU and Utah; doesn't change data

krindorr

12/14/20 5:18pm

it's common on here to attack folks personally when you say something

run26

12/14/20 5:32pm

A possibility

I'm Dynamite

12/14/20 5:46pm

Frankly, I don't think you're a homer

krindorr

12/14/20 6:16pm

Nope. You're upfront about being a yewt. Your posts on BYU are all negative.

Brandoblueblood

12/14/20 6:19pm

Except for all those positive posts about BYU

krindorr

12/14/20 6:34pm

Interesting, I don't see any. The only positive posts from you are about yewtah

Brandoblueblood

12/14/20 6:41pm

Krindorr: "I chuckle at all these BYU fans who think they're a top 10 team."

Brandoblueblood

12/14/20 6:50pm

Because I expected the committee to rank BYU #12 - EDITED

krindorr

12/14/20 6:58pm

Ha. On October 7? Gig's up yewt.

Brandoblueblood

12/14/20 7:17pm

Yes - On October 7th, I didn't think BYU was a top 10 team. And?

krindorr

12/14/20 7:23pm

Here's a fact yewtah's sucking worse: mustered 2 wins this year

Brandoblueblood

12/14/20 6:25pm

Seems like a good position...add P5 money and prestige...BYU emerges upper tier

Jasbo

12/14/20 7:21pm

Agree, I think there's a rough transition, but they'd be as good as Utah

krindorr

12/14/20 7:26pm

I have different takes on this data...

Hill4Heisman

12/15/20 12:40pm

Lots of that has been addressed

krindorr

12/15/20 1:12pm

Just for fun, I did an analysis for Florida

Hill4Heisman

12/15/20 2:12pm

Thanks for this - that's a ton of effort

krindorr

12/15/20 2:28pm

Add in 6 cancelled P5s this season. That would help.

I'm Dynamite

12/15/20 1:17pm

Having now collected data for all 69 P5S teams (including BYU, UCF, Cincy, Houston)...

krindorr

9/8/21 6:59pm

How other G5 teams compare

krindorr

12/15/20 2:22pm

Posting on CougarBoard