BYU has won 40% of their home games against P5, 41% of their away games against P5

The initial post addresses performance vs both good/bad P5 teams. We're slightly above 50% against bad P5, something like 20% against good P5. Given that we're 38% overall vs P5, I'd argue we're not as good as the average P5 team (which by definition wins 50% of P5 games). Given that we get 50% against the lesser teams, I'd argue we fit in decently with the lesser teams. (This is ignoring any arguments about BYU being a trap game for opponents or us getting up for one-off P5 games or even just the depth needed to play at that level weekly)

None of that is meant to be an insult. We're not better than most P5 teams, but we also have a lot less resources, so that's OK. To win 38% is impressive (twice the general G5 rate), given where we are, even if it's not where we'd like to be. Getting into a P5 conference would probably make us slightly above average.

I'd agree we're better than Rutgers who isn't just subpar, but the absolute dregs of the P5 (22.5% vs other P5 since joining the Big 10, literally nobody gets <10% over an extended period of time) and not what I mean when I say a lesser P5 team.

The comparison I've thrown out a few times is Georgia Tech, who has won 40% of their games over the 5 years before this (19-29); I've also mentioned that we're right there or better than Oregon State (26-69 over the past decade for a 27.4% P5 win percentage that is honestly slightly worse than I would have guessed). Looking at the numbers closer now, Georgia Tech is a really good match for where we are, but you're right that we'd do better if we were in a P5. Utah's success (slightly above average, especially after a rough start when they transitioned) is actually a pretty good barometer of what could be expected if BYU went P5.