I think there are different levels of recruits when it comes to this aspect (I guess obviously).  But at the bottom level you've got a kid who is just thrilled to get a D1 offer.  Next level, the 2-3 star guys want to get into the best D-1 program and have options, and while they may dream of NCs, that isn't their only priority.  When you start looking at 4-5 star guys they want to be on a team they believe can go all the way and/or propel them into the NFL.

So to answer your questions, this is kind of a chicken-and-egg scenario, but to contend for a NC we need to get 4-5 star guys, but we aren't going to get 4-5 star guys if we can't contend for a NC - it is a true non-starter for maybe every single one of those guys.

I think a real problem that BYU has right now is the gulf that is the likely outcome of a season.  Suppose magic happens next year and we are 10-1 at this point in the season like the Utes were - a shot at the CFP, but if we lose... the Hawaii Bowl (I'm exagerating here, but really...).  That's pretty rough.