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Apr 10, 2020
8:14:02am
BYU I Bleed Blue All-American
The Foolishness of Herd Immunity in Infectious Diseases
Consider the basics of the following scenario:
1. Approx. 330 million people in the US.
2. Low estimate of 25% infection rate = 82.5 million infected
3. Another low estimate of 2% death rate of those infected - increases with age, immune deficiencies, health, etc. = 1.65 million deaths.
4. I believe that the death rate would actually be higher because hospitals would not have any capacity at all to handle numbers, so many people would not have access to ventilators, medicine, and quite possibly might infect more of their family members.
5. Funeral homes and cemeteries would be overwhelmed. No capacity to bury all of those who pass away.
6. I have at least 15 people in my extended family (age, health, pregnancy, who would be at risk, plus how do we know children won't pass away)

I too feel the economic pain and have seen it in my family with lost jobs, furloughs, and shut downs, but I would rather have that than to have the unexpected passing of a family member. Three or four family members almost guaranteed to pass if they got the virus, and had no access to medical care.

So, which of your immediate and extended family members are you willing to sacrifice in the herd immunity scenario?
BYU I Bleed Blue
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BYU I Bleed Blue
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