so close to understanding it... Just let go of your Rose colored glasses and look at it objectively.
The biases are programmed in. You may or may not agree with the biases, but they are there and tell the algorithm that a win over Alabama is better. There are some win/loss factors that also apply, but there is also strong programmatic bias. The PAC has been extreme beneficiaries of this bias causing them, and Utah specifically, to be severely overrated.
Not to mention the human polls that also feed into the biases.