Mar 11, 2016
12:04:28pm
BYU'01 3rd String
Agree, good discussion, a couple of things to consider
I think we agree on a lot, e.g. I think I gave your OP a thumbs up, good data + analysis can give you insight, a 3-point FG is worth 50% more than a 2-point FG, the loss at Portland was the worst game of Kyle Collinsworth's career, etc.

I think we were probably talking past each on a few things. Example: I took the analysis "for offensive production" or your assertion that KC is the last starter that you "would want with the ball in his hands at the end of the game" as meaning he shouldn't have played point guard or wasn't a productive offensive player.

A few things to consider:
First, if you meant to say that Kyle Collinsworth isn't a good shooter I don't know why you would include turnovers. Turnovers are very relevant to offensive efficiency/productivity - as are assists and offensive rebounds - but don't seem relevant to shooting.

Second, missed free throws are really frustrating as they seem so preventable. However, I think you're under-valuing a guy who can create his own shot and consistently get to the line, even if he only shoots 65%. Except when its a one possession game I think he's an asset.

Third, how can you possibly say that Nick & Chase didn't play huge roles in our poor losses?

Against LBSU: KC had 12 points on 13.5 equiv-shots (FGA+ 1/2 of FTs) plus 3 offensive rebounds. He had 7 TOs but 6 assists and Chase & Nick had 4 points on 15 shots and no offensive rebounds. In a one point game that seems huge.

Against Harvard: KC was lights out with 23 points on 18.5 equiv-shots. Nick & Chase: 17 points on 21.5 shots. Again, huge in a 3 point loss in overtime.

Against Portland: KC's worst game of his career (4 of 17). You could pin that loss on his shot selection/volume even with his 3 offensive rebounds. However, Emery was 4 of 11. Combined N&C: 35 points on 31.5 equiv-shots.

Against Pepperdine: KC 18 points on 15 equiv-shots plus 4 offensive rebounds. Nick & Chase: 32 points on 35.5 equiv-shots.

Against Pacific: KC 9 points on 12 shots but also had 5 offensive rebounds. Nick & Chase: 8 of 29 with only 3 3-pointers. The constant foul trading at the end + awesome free throw shooting allowed Chase to go 14-14. 36 points on 37.5 equiv-shots with no offensive rebounds.

Outside of the Portland game I don't think trading Kyle's shots for both Nick & Chase wins any games. Ultimately, BYU needs an inside game that can produce a tight standard deviation on points per possession.

To that end, if we're down 3 you want the ball in Nick or Chase or Zac's hands. Down 2 I probably want the ball in Kyle's hands to get Chase, Nick or Zac for a catch & shoot or a layup but his free throw shooting definitely hurts in a one possession game. Down 1 or tied I'd let Kyle be the playmaker.
BYU'01
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BYU'01
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