Ultimately, it's a lot easier to get an AAU spot than to land on a decent college team. It's also likely that a legitimate college prospect would eventually get offers regardless of whether or not they participated in AAU ball. This is all to say that the AAU team would definitely help your child feel like they're chasing their dreams, but might not get them any closer to their end goal (likely D-I basketball).

AAU put a lot of strain on my cousin's family. His other siblings (also my cousins) resented the time and money being dedicated to him; several others felt like, one way or another, his opportunities and the attention his parents dedicated to participating on the AAU team actually detracted from their goals and dreams. Other siblings still feel some resentment about that - especially because my cousin ended up being a great pick-up basketball player, but nothing exceptional at his high school or within his state.

Obviously parenting is not entirely a zero-sum game, but you can't expect the dollars and hours you spend on that child to go unnoticed. Are both parents ready to step up their games for all kids? Are both parents ready to spend similar amounts of time and money chasing dreams with children in the future? Will the older children (if any) harbor resentment about the opportunities for this kid that weren't an option when they were young?

I think a strong argument could already be made for just staying local and being "the guy." But when you add family dynamics to that, it seems like the smarter move would be to pass on AAU, IMO.