now they several have their own sports.
Now, I don't have the exact numbers for BYU growth but it would look something like this:
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Sure, there are 40,000 people doing the pathway program, but they're not rooting for BYU sports.
It is also a shift in the culture of a significant portion of the church to be more "liberal" and "woke," which means traditional things like BYU are inherently "less progressive." If a bunch of BYU fans in Provo mocked a student wearing utah or utah state paraphernalia, there would be serious repercussions. In South jordan, BYU reps are mocked often with impugnity.
Without significant growth, more and more people will be unable (or unwilling) to attend BYU. That means more and more people that (at best) are apathetic toward BYU and (at worst) are actively working against BYU.