Death numbers alone (let's forget about the permanent but not fatal cases and the long-haul cases) put the mortality rate for confirmed covid cases is about 1.5% overall (based on deaths to reported cases). We know that the reported number of cases is much higher (most agencies estimate the actual number to be 5-20 times the amount of reported cases), so many estimate the actual death rate if you contract covid, to be approximately 0.15%.

Adverse reactions to the vaccine are tracked and classified. So far in the US there have been 6,000 deaths reported within 3 months of receiving the covid vaccine, with approx 182M people fully vaccinated. So at best, that is 0.0033% fatality rate. I say at best, because the cause of death isn't actually confirmed as caused by the vaccine, just that it occurred within the specified period. So, when you give senior citizens in assisted living or convalescent hospitals the vaccine first, there is a good chance that a significant number of those may die for totally unrelated reasons, and out of the others in the 6,000, there is a high probability that other things actually caused deaths as well.

So if your choices are do nothing or get vaccinated, you face about 100x higher mortality rate from doing nothing vs death from the vaccine.

I get that the calculations aren't exhaustive because vaccinated people are still getting covid and dying, but in much lower proportions. The hospitalization numbers support somewhere around 10% of those in the hospitals for covid have been vaccinated and they account for less than 5% of the deaths. Those numbers alone are evidence that the vaccines are successful at doing what they say they do, "preventing serious infections and death". Mortality rates vary greatly by age and health circumstances, but so do adverse reactions to the vaccines.